Monte Carlo Throughput Forecast

How much can your team realistically complete over a set period of time?

How It Works

This tool answers a different question than a date forecast: given your team's historical throughput, how many items (or story points) are you likely to complete over a set period of time? Enter your historical data, choose how many cycles to project across and how long each cycle is, and the simulator will run 10,000 scenarios to show you a realistic range of outcomes at different confidence levels.

Parameters
?
Simulates uncertainty by randomly reducing throughput in each simulation. 0% = no adjustment. 20% means a simulation could lose up to 20% of its sampled throughput — useful for modeling interruptions, unplanned work, or team availability.
0% (no adjustment)
NoneLowMediumHigh
?
How many cycles to project forward. For example, enter 6 to forecast across the next 6 sprints.
?
The time unit for your cycles — days, weeks, or months.
?
How long each cycle is. Select your unit first, then enter the length — e.g. with Weeks selected, enter 2 for 2-week sprints. Locked to 1 when Months is selected.
Forecasting across 1 cycle — 2 weeks total.
Throughput Forecast
Distribution